Before Paisley led his party into a power sharing deal with Sinn Féin there were numerous stories of unhappy DUP members - remember the twelve apostles?
The ending of dual mandates will leave the party with an easy get out for some of its more senior members who just aren't all that enamoured with such a close association with Sinn Féin. Rather than the threat of jumping ship to Jim Allister and his TUV misfits, they can be rewarded with a seat in Westminster - 'the motherland's legislature' - for an easy life well away from the day to day dealings with abstentionist republicans.
An end to dual mandates should, in theory, see the most talented representatives stay in the regional legislature to deal with the vast majority of legislation (policing and justice should also be devolved by this time leaving even less of a role for NI MPs). But some may prefer the more palatable idea of a comfortable life sitting only on the green benches.
It is also an obvious way for Peter Robinson to ship some of the old Paisleyites out of the way. So a future Assembly could well see no Paisley Jnr, no Willie McCrea, no David Simpson, perhaps even current Culture Minister Gregory Campbell might be among the exiles?
Showing posts with label DUP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DUP. Show all posts
Monday, 2 February 2009
Saturday, 24 January 2009
Under Pressure
The conventional narrative is that the DUP and Sinn Féin are the two political parties inexorably on the rise in NI politics. This is why they arguably are not...
The DUP has arguably never been under so much pressure. Now seen in an inextricably linked coalition with Sinn Féin, to the extent where they have to share a joint office, it is arguably an impossibly toxic position for much of their electoral power base to support. The DUP, however are stuck there. Despite being the largest political party, they are potentially the most vulnerable.
By the 2011 Assembly Elections a vote for the DUP will no longer be a vote against Sinn Féin, or a vote to keep Sinn Féin down or out. It simply cannot be if it means the two parties, returned the largest in their respective communities, will enter into coalition.
But, both the DUP and Sinn Féin have no other alternative coalition partners apart from each other. Their very extremism leaves them only with each other. Hence the opportunity for the centre ground - where a strategy developed on meaningful engagement and a sense of proper power sharing could once again appeal to the majority of the electorate.
For the first time in a while I can see the potential for a centre ground fight back at the next Assembly Election. With something akin to some sort of proper strategy from the SDLP and UUP in 2011, could it really prove to be that the DUP and Sinn Féin have reached their electoral peak in NI?
The DUP has arguably never been under so much pressure. Now seen in an inextricably linked coalition with Sinn Féin, to the extent where they have to share a joint office, it is arguably an impossibly toxic position for much of their electoral power base to support. The DUP, however are stuck there. Despite being the largest political party, they are potentially the most vulnerable.
By the 2011 Assembly Elections a vote for the DUP will no longer be a vote against Sinn Féin, or a vote to keep Sinn Féin down or out. It simply cannot be if it means the two parties, returned the largest in their respective communities, will enter into coalition.
But, both the DUP and Sinn Féin have no other alternative coalition partners apart from each other. Their very extremism leaves them only with each other. Hence the opportunity for the centre ground - where a strategy developed on meaningful engagement and a sense of proper power sharing could once again appeal to the majority of the electorate.
For the first time in a while I can see the potential for a centre ground fight back at the next Assembly Election. With something akin to some sort of proper strategy from the SDLP and UUP in 2011, could it really prove to be that the DUP and Sinn Féin have reached their electoral peak in NI?
Wednesday, 21 January 2009
So many names...
With the Assembly and Executive Review Committee's First Report into the devolution of policing and justice now through the Assembly and the realisation from some that there may still be a considerable amount of time before powers are transferred, the rumour mill up at Stormont as to who could be in line for the Justice Minister continues to revolve.
We can presume that the Minister will be elected on a cross community vote in the Assembly, given that this recommendation has now been passed. This essentially means it will be fall to whoever the DUP and Sinn Féin decide to support. As we know, both these parties have ruled themselves out of the running until 2012 when the sunset clause kicks in (the sunset clause is something that we might hear a lot about in the 2011 elections, I can see the TUV manifesto now, "the sun is setting on the DUP's justice plans" perhaps?).
The first rumour was that Alliance could be offered the job and a trio of names entered the fray: David Ford, Naomi Long and Stephen Farry. Of these Ford was the most likely; being leader of a small party and allowing a party colleague to take a ministerial position when offered is generally not considered a sensible political move. Now, however, the chatter has moved away from talk of Alliance, specifically after a marked relaxation in the Sinn Féin camp over a possible SDLP choice.
The SDLP long argued the position was rightfully theirs given they were next in line under d'hondt. Not strictly true in my opinion given that d'hondt could simply be run again from the start, guaranteeing the SDLP another ministry, but not necessarily this ministry. A name oft mentoned was Alban Maginness who is now running from Europe. This doesn't necessarily rule him out, given that he may well not be elected in June and be left free to position himself for the role. Another, much more unlikely, name offered in some sections of the media has been Alex Attwood - (I would be very surprised to say the least!)
The latest name I have heard mentioned, not from an SDLP source I may add, is Margaret Ritchie. Switching her from DSD would certainly be an interesting option, would further secure the South Down Westminster seat (although I would accept that this is probably won already) and would in some sense be another shot across the bow of loyalist paramilitaries, who after the withdrawal of CTI funding, now see her as the wicked witch.
If the SDLP is to be offered the job (and I haven't mentioned the possibility of the UUP in this post) then it would seem folly for the Party Leader not to take up the position. Durkan has received some criticism for not taking the DSD portfolio first time round and his leadership would surely be put into question if he bypassed himself for the new post.
A quick mention of the UUP - I suppose Danny Kennedy would be the most obvious choice. And as no threat to a DUP Westminster seat in Newry and Armagh he might be palatable for the larger unionist party. Perhaps a deal will be forged with Sinn Féin that a unionist will take the position first, with a nationalist minister following up in 2012?
I suppose the flurry of names suggests that nobody really knows!
We can presume that the Minister will be elected on a cross community vote in the Assembly, given that this recommendation has now been passed. This essentially means it will be fall to whoever the DUP and Sinn Féin decide to support. As we know, both these parties have ruled themselves out of the running until 2012 when the sunset clause kicks in (the sunset clause is something that we might hear a lot about in the 2011 elections, I can see the TUV manifesto now, "the sun is setting on the DUP's justice plans" perhaps?).
The first rumour was that Alliance could be offered the job and a trio of names entered the fray: David Ford, Naomi Long and Stephen Farry. Of these Ford was the most likely; being leader of a small party and allowing a party colleague to take a ministerial position when offered is generally not considered a sensible political move. Now, however, the chatter has moved away from talk of Alliance, specifically after a marked relaxation in the Sinn Féin camp over a possible SDLP choice.
The SDLP long argued the position was rightfully theirs given they were next in line under d'hondt. Not strictly true in my opinion given that d'hondt could simply be run again from the start, guaranteeing the SDLP another ministry, but not necessarily this ministry. A name oft mentoned was Alban Maginness who is now running from Europe. This doesn't necessarily rule him out, given that he may well not be elected in June and be left free to position himself for the role. Another, much more unlikely, name offered in some sections of the media has been Alex Attwood - (I would be very surprised to say the least!)
The latest name I have heard mentioned, not from an SDLP source I may add, is Margaret Ritchie. Switching her from DSD would certainly be an interesting option, would further secure the South Down Westminster seat (although I would accept that this is probably won already) and would in some sense be another shot across the bow of loyalist paramilitaries, who after the withdrawal of CTI funding, now see her as the wicked witch.
If the SDLP is to be offered the job (and I haven't mentioned the possibility of the UUP in this post) then it would seem folly for the Party Leader not to take up the position. Durkan has received some criticism for not taking the DSD portfolio first time round and his leadership would surely be put into question if he bypassed himself for the new post.
A quick mention of the UUP - I suppose Danny Kennedy would be the most obvious choice. And as no threat to a DUP Westminster seat in Newry and Armagh he might be palatable for the larger unionist party. Perhaps a deal will be forged with Sinn Féin that a unionist will take the position first, with a nationalist minister following up in 2012?
I suppose the flurry of names suggests that nobody really knows!
Sunday, 18 January 2009
Delivery breeds confidence, not the other way around
The Assembly will return to policing and justice matters next week when Members discuss the Assembly and Executive Review Committee's latest report. The final piece of the devolution jigsaw is ready to be put in place, but as politicians pontificate, so the public disillusionment about whether those on the hill will deliver grows.
The DUP won't move before the European elections in June, fearful of playing into the hands of Jim Allister. Mark Devenport alludes to unnamed sources who are saying the date could now be November, but who is to say it won't be 2010 or longer before the final compromise can be achieved.
Unionist politicians point to an absence of public confidence. Yet doesn't delivery breed confidence, not just in policing and justice matters, but in all policy areas? Could it be the public is lacking confidence, not in whether 'conditions are right', but in the ability of our politicians to lead us towards an improved quality of life?
The biggest danger to devolution no longer lies from within, from the threat that a party could bring about suspension with an effective "if it doesn't work our way it doesnt work at all" type veto. Now the greater danger to devolution is from the outside, indeed it is from us - a declining public confidence in our politicians, regardless of their creed or colour.
A few months ago we were told how the Executive not meeting meant political paralysis, yet now it is back, what really has changed? Still we wait, still we wonder... on academic selection; on the Maze; on the Irish language etc etc etc
In a recent conversation with a backbench DUP MLA I was told his party knew they would be judged on "what they could deliver." The MLA felt the Ulster Unionists failed, because they couldn't deliver tangible benefits in partnership government. This should not just be a concern for the DUP; but for all at the Executive table.
If devolved government doesn't deliver enough, all of our politicians are effected. For when the connection with the public they are elected to serve is lost, then the true meaning behind why we have democracy and a devolved Assembly is lost.
The DUP won't move before the European elections in June, fearful of playing into the hands of Jim Allister. Mark Devenport alludes to unnamed sources who are saying the date could now be November, but who is to say it won't be 2010 or longer before the final compromise can be achieved.
Unionist politicians point to an absence of public confidence. Yet doesn't delivery breed confidence, not just in policing and justice matters, but in all policy areas? Could it be the public is lacking confidence, not in whether 'conditions are right', but in the ability of our politicians to lead us towards an improved quality of life?
The biggest danger to devolution no longer lies from within, from the threat that a party could bring about suspension with an effective "if it doesn't work our way it doesnt work at all" type veto. Now the greater danger to devolution is from the outside, indeed it is from us - a declining public confidence in our politicians, regardless of their creed or colour.
A few months ago we were told how the Executive not meeting meant political paralysis, yet now it is back, what really has changed? Still we wait, still we wonder... on academic selection; on the Maze; on the Irish language etc etc etc
In a recent conversation with a backbench DUP MLA I was told his party knew they would be judged on "what they could deliver." The MLA felt the Ulster Unionists failed, because they couldn't deliver tangible benefits in partnership government. This should not just be a concern for the DUP; but for all at the Executive table.
If devolved government doesn't deliver enough, all of our politicians are effected. For when the connection with the public they are elected to serve is lost, then the true meaning behind why we have democracy and a devolved Assembly is lost.
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