The conventional narrative is that the DUP and Sinn Féin are the two political parties inexorably on the rise in NI politics. This is why they arguably are not...
The DUP has arguably never been under so much pressure. Now seen in an inextricably linked coalition with Sinn Féin, to the extent where they have to share a joint office, it is arguably an impossibly toxic position for much of their electoral power base to support. The DUP, however are stuck there. Despite being the largest political party, they are potentially the most vulnerable.
By the 2011 Assembly Elections a vote for the DUP will no longer be a vote against Sinn Féin, or a vote to keep Sinn Féin down or out. It simply cannot be if it means the two parties, returned the largest in their respective communities, will enter into coalition.
But, both the DUP and Sinn Féin have no other alternative coalition partners apart from each other. Their very extremism leaves them only with each other. Hence the opportunity for the centre ground - where a strategy developed on meaningful engagement and a sense of proper power sharing could once again appeal to the majority of the electorate.
For the first time in a while I can see the potential for a centre ground fight back at the next Assembly Election. With something akin to some sort of proper strategy from the SDLP and UUP in 2011, could it really prove to be that the DUP and Sinn Féin have reached their electoral peak in NI?
Showing posts with label SDLP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SDLP. Show all posts
Saturday, 24 January 2009
SDLP Conference
I headed to Armagh for the SDLP Party Conference this weekend. Perhaps some of you who are reading this were there and are pondering my identity, well keep pondering... for that particular piece of information is not becoming exoteric for the moment!
Overall my assessment of the conference was mixed. I didn't see anything that made me think, yes the SDLP is on its way back, but I did think there were some glimmers of potential. Durkan's speech wasn't his best, but he did just about enough. Ritchie gave a decent account of the DUP/SF carve up failing the people of NI. The best speech, however, I thought came from European candidate Alban Maginness. A passion for Europe really came across and a well put together critique of the sitting MEPs showed he is certainly up for a fight. It did make me think for a second that he may actually stand a chance of getting elected... it was only for a second though (as I've blogged before the numbers just don't stack up in my opinion). I do at least think that Alban will garner the majority of transfers from the Alliance or 'unity' candidate now, instead of splitting them evenly with Jim Nicholson as appeared to happen between Martin Morgan and Nicholson in 2004. Maginness seems to be positioning himself more towards the centre ground, a sensible move to try and pick as many 'protestant Alliance' voters as possible.
The most moving part of the Conference was Paul Quinn's mother remembering her son and his brutal death in South Armagh, recounted at one of the fringe meetings. A truly memorable occasion that left many brushing the tears away from their eyes.
The main glimmers of hope for the party came, in my opinion, from a number of conversations with party delegates. There is a massive willingness to implement some of the lessons from the Obama campaign and bring in new techniques to engage with voters and increase membership. If the SDLP is brave and puts serious resources into this then they may be able to find the formula to reverse the trend of falling votes. The party has a future, but only if it can use new methods to re-engage the disengaged.
Overall my assessment of the conference was mixed. I didn't see anything that made me think, yes the SDLP is on its way back, but I did think there were some glimmers of potential. Durkan's speech wasn't his best, but he did just about enough. Ritchie gave a decent account of the DUP/SF carve up failing the people of NI. The best speech, however, I thought came from European candidate Alban Maginness. A passion for Europe really came across and a well put together critique of the sitting MEPs showed he is certainly up for a fight. It did make me think for a second that he may actually stand a chance of getting elected... it was only for a second though (as I've blogged before the numbers just don't stack up in my opinion). I do at least think that Alban will garner the majority of transfers from the Alliance or 'unity' candidate now, instead of splitting them evenly with Jim Nicholson as appeared to happen between Martin Morgan and Nicholson in 2004. Maginness seems to be positioning himself more towards the centre ground, a sensible move to try and pick as many 'protestant Alliance' voters as possible.
The most moving part of the Conference was Paul Quinn's mother remembering her son and his brutal death in South Armagh, recounted at one of the fringe meetings. A truly memorable occasion that left many brushing the tears away from their eyes.
The main glimmers of hope for the party came, in my opinion, from a number of conversations with party delegates. There is a massive willingness to implement some of the lessons from the Obama campaign and bring in new techniques to engage with voters and increase membership. If the SDLP is brave and puts serious resources into this then they may be able to find the formula to reverse the trend of falling votes. The party has a future, but only if it can use new methods to re-engage the disengaged.
Wednesday, 21 January 2009
So many names...
With the Assembly and Executive Review Committee's First Report into the devolution of policing and justice now through the Assembly and the realisation from some that there may still be a considerable amount of time before powers are transferred, the rumour mill up at Stormont as to who could be in line for the Justice Minister continues to revolve.
We can presume that the Minister will be elected on a cross community vote in the Assembly, given that this recommendation has now been passed. This essentially means it will be fall to whoever the DUP and Sinn Féin decide to support. As we know, both these parties have ruled themselves out of the running until 2012 when the sunset clause kicks in (the sunset clause is something that we might hear a lot about in the 2011 elections, I can see the TUV manifesto now, "the sun is setting on the DUP's justice plans" perhaps?).
The first rumour was that Alliance could be offered the job and a trio of names entered the fray: David Ford, Naomi Long and Stephen Farry. Of these Ford was the most likely; being leader of a small party and allowing a party colleague to take a ministerial position when offered is generally not considered a sensible political move. Now, however, the chatter has moved away from talk of Alliance, specifically after a marked relaxation in the Sinn Féin camp over a possible SDLP choice.
The SDLP long argued the position was rightfully theirs given they were next in line under d'hondt. Not strictly true in my opinion given that d'hondt could simply be run again from the start, guaranteeing the SDLP another ministry, but not necessarily this ministry. A name oft mentoned was Alban Maginness who is now running from Europe. This doesn't necessarily rule him out, given that he may well not be elected in June and be left free to position himself for the role. Another, much more unlikely, name offered in some sections of the media has been Alex Attwood - (I would be very surprised to say the least!)
The latest name I have heard mentioned, not from an SDLP source I may add, is Margaret Ritchie. Switching her from DSD would certainly be an interesting option, would further secure the South Down Westminster seat (although I would accept that this is probably won already) and would in some sense be another shot across the bow of loyalist paramilitaries, who after the withdrawal of CTI funding, now see her as the wicked witch.
If the SDLP is to be offered the job (and I haven't mentioned the possibility of the UUP in this post) then it would seem folly for the Party Leader not to take up the position. Durkan has received some criticism for not taking the DSD portfolio first time round and his leadership would surely be put into question if he bypassed himself for the new post.
A quick mention of the UUP - I suppose Danny Kennedy would be the most obvious choice. And as no threat to a DUP Westminster seat in Newry and Armagh he might be palatable for the larger unionist party. Perhaps a deal will be forged with Sinn Féin that a unionist will take the position first, with a nationalist minister following up in 2012?
I suppose the flurry of names suggests that nobody really knows!
We can presume that the Minister will be elected on a cross community vote in the Assembly, given that this recommendation has now been passed. This essentially means it will be fall to whoever the DUP and Sinn Féin decide to support. As we know, both these parties have ruled themselves out of the running until 2012 when the sunset clause kicks in (the sunset clause is something that we might hear a lot about in the 2011 elections, I can see the TUV manifesto now, "the sun is setting on the DUP's justice plans" perhaps?).
The first rumour was that Alliance could be offered the job and a trio of names entered the fray: David Ford, Naomi Long and Stephen Farry. Of these Ford was the most likely; being leader of a small party and allowing a party colleague to take a ministerial position when offered is generally not considered a sensible political move. Now, however, the chatter has moved away from talk of Alliance, specifically after a marked relaxation in the Sinn Féin camp over a possible SDLP choice.
The SDLP long argued the position was rightfully theirs given they were next in line under d'hondt. Not strictly true in my opinion given that d'hondt could simply be run again from the start, guaranteeing the SDLP another ministry, but not necessarily this ministry. A name oft mentoned was Alban Maginness who is now running from Europe. This doesn't necessarily rule him out, given that he may well not be elected in June and be left free to position himself for the role. Another, much more unlikely, name offered in some sections of the media has been Alex Attwood - (I would be very surprised to say the least!)
The latest name I have heard mentioned, not from an SDLP source I may add, is Margaret Ritchie. Switching her from DSD would certainly be an interesting option, would further secure the South Down Westminster seat (although I would accept that this is probably won already) and would in some sense be another shot across the bow of loyalist paramilitaries, who after the withdrawal of CTI funding, now see her as the wicked witch.
If the SDLP is to be offered the job (and I haven't mentioned the possibility of the UUP in this post) then it would seem folly for the Party Leader not to take up the position. Durkan has received some criticism for not taking the DSD portfolio first time round and his leadership would surely be put into question if he bypassed himself for the new post.
A quick mention of the UUP - I suppose Danny Kennedy would be the most obvious choice. And as no threat to a DUP Westminster seat in Newry and Armagh he might be palatable for the larger unionist party. Perhaps a deal will be forged with Sinn Féin that a unionist will take the position first, with a nationalist minister following up in 2012?
I suppose the flurry of names suggests that nobody really knows!
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